Hope Is on the Horizon for Today’s Housing Shortage

June 15, 2021

Housing Inventory

The major challenge in today’s housing market is that there are more buyers looking to purchase than there are homes available to buy. Simply put, supply can’t keep up with demand. A normal market has a 6-month supply of homes for sale. Anything over that indicates it’s a buyers’ market, but an inventory level below that threshold means we’re in a sellers’ market. Today’s inventory level sits far below the norm.

  • Low inventory is not a problem

According to the Existing Home Sales Report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR):

Total housing inventory at the end of April amounted to 1.16 million units, up 10.5% from March’s inventory and down 20.5% from one year ago (1.46 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 2.4-month supply at the current sales pace, slightly up from March’s 2.1-month supply and down from the 4.0-month supply recorded in April 2020. These numbers continue to represent near-record lows.

  • Existing home sale are down

Basically, while we are seeing some improvement, we’re still at near-record lows for housing inventory (as shown in the graph below). Here’s why. Since the pandemic began, sellers have been cautious when it comes to putting their homes on the market. At the same time that fewer people are listing their homes, more and more people are trying to buy them thanks to today’s low mortgage rates. The influx of buyers aiming to capitalize on those rates are purchasing this supply of homes as quickly as they’re coming to market.Hope Is on the Horizon for Today's Housing Shortage | MyKCMThis inventory shortage doesn’t just apply to existing homes that are already built. When it comes to new construction, builders are trying to do their part to bring more newly built homes into the market. However, due to challenges with things like lumber supply, they’re also not able to keep up with demand. In their Monthly New Residential Sales report, the United States Census Bureau states:

The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of April was 316,000. This represents asupply of 4.4 months at the current sales rate.

Hope Is on the Horizon for Today's Housing Shortage | MyKCMSam Khater, Chief Economist at Freddie Mac, elaborates:

In the span of five decades, entry level construction fell from 418,000 units per year in the late 1970s to 65,000 in 2020.

While in 2020 only 65,000 entry-level homes were completed, there were 2.38 million first-time homebuyers that purchased homes. Not all renters looking to purchase their first home were in the market for entry-level homes, however, the large disparity illustrates the significant and rapidly widening gap between entry-level supply and demand.

Despite today’s low inventory, there is hope on the horizon.

  • Yay! For the builders!

Regarding existing home sales, Sabrina Speianu, Senior Economic Research Analyst at realtor.com, explains:

In May, newly listed homes grew by 5.4% on a year-over-year basis compared to the earlier days of the COVID-19 pandemic last year

In May, the share of newly listed homes compared to active daily inventory hit a historical high of 44.4%, 17.3 percentage points higher than last year and 15.1 percentage points above typical levels seen in 2017 to 2019. This is a reflection of quickly selling homes and, for buyers, it means that while they can expect fresh new listings every week, they will have to be prepared to move quickly on desirable homes.

As for newly built homes, builders are also confident about what’s ahead for housing inventory. Robert Dietz, Chief Economist at the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), shares:

Builder confidence in the market remains strong due to a lack of resale inventory, low mortgage interest rates, and a growing demographic of prospective home buyers.

Things are starting to look up for residential real estate inventory. As the country continues to reopen, more houses are likely to be listed for sale. However, as long as buyer demand remains high, it will take time for the balance between supply and demand to truly neutralize.

Bottom Line

Although it may be challenging to find a house to buy in today’s market, there is hope on the horizon. Let’s connect to talk about your home search so we can find your dream home this summer.

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We are excited to share our exceptional experience with Mr. David Worth in purchasing our new home at the Falcon Trace subdivision, near Hunter’s Creek here in Orlando. From start to finish, David demonstrated unparalleled professionalism, expertise, and dedication. Navigating the home-buying process can be scary and bring a ton of uncertainty, but David made it seamless and enjoyable. His patience and understanding were remarkable as we explored numerous properties to find our perfect home. We physically looked at 12 homes, and had him research online at least 5 more. He never pressured us to make a hasty decision, instead providing insightful guidance and support every step of the way. What truly sets David apart is his communication skills. David was always in touch with us either via phone, text or email. On the negotiation process, David tirelessly advocated on our behalf, ensuring we received the best possible deal. His knowledge of the market and strategic approach saved us both time and money, making us feel confident and well-represented throughout the negotiation process. Due to other competing commitments, we could not attend important milestones/engagements, such as the inspection of the home, and the appraisal. David attended both gladly and supervised the entire process. We can’t thank him enough for that. We are now proud homeowners in Falcon Trace, and we owe it all to David. His commitment to our satisfaction and their genuine care for our needs exceeded all our expectations. We wholeheartedly recommend David to anyone looking to buy or sell a home.
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Thrive Counseling (Guidance with Garcia)
David Worth is a dedicated, trustworthy, and caring professional. He truly values his clients and is genuinely committed to their benefit. I have unfortunately worked with a realtor in the past who made it clear the sale, not my best interests, were the priority. I can confidently say you will never have this experience when working with David... I highly recommend David and Worth Real Estate Company!
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Khayan Martinez
I worked with David as a Loan Officer, and he was fantastic to work with throughout the entire process. Was always accessible to keep communication flowing through all parties involved, always involved in the process ensuring his client's best interest and also helping along the process with any knowledge he had to make sure the process was kept smooth for everyone in the transaction. Definitely looking forward to working with him again, and wouldn't hesitate a second ti recommend him as a realtor to any of my clients.
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David Worth is not only a real estate agent but a dedicated and caring professional who genuinely wants the best for his clients. He provides an outstanding service and I highly recommend him to anyone looking to buy or sell their home. Thank you David
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