Reasons why some are confused about the Economic Recovery

April 1, 2021

professor writing on the board while having a chalk and blackboard lecture (shallow DOF; color toned image)

Confused About the Economic Recovery? Here’s Why.

As we continue to work through the health crisis that plagues this country, more and more conversations are turning to economic recovery. While we look for signs that we’ve reached a plateau in cases of COVID-19, the concern and fear of what will happen as businesses open up again is on all of our minds. This causes confusion about what an economic recovery will look like. With this in mind, it’s important to understand how economists are using three types of sciences to formulate their forecasts and to work toward clearer answers.

  1. Business Science – How has the economy rebounded from similar slowdowns in the past?
  2. Health Science – When will COVID-19 be under control? Will there be another flareup of the virus this fall?
  3. People Science – After businesses are fully operational, how long will it take American consumers to return to normal consumption patterns? (Ex: going to the movies, attending a sporting event, or flying).

Sam Khater, Chief Economist at Freddie Mac, says:

“Although the uncertainty of the crisis means forecasts of economic activity are more unclear than usual, we expect that most of the economic damage from the virus will be contained to the first half of the year. Going forward, we should see a recovery starting in the second half of 2020.”

This past week, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released the advanced estimate for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2020. That estimate came in at -4.8%. It was a clear indicator showing how the U.S. economy slowed as businesses shut down and consumers retreated to their homes in fear of the health crisis and of contracting COVID-19.Confused About the Economic Recovery? Here’s Why. | MyKCMExperts agree that the second quarter of 2020 will be an even greater slowdown, a sign more businesses are feeling the effects of this health crisis. The same experts, however, project businesses will rebound, and a recovery will start to happen in the second half of this year.

Bottom Line

As time goes on, we’ll have more clarity around what the true economic recovery will look like, and we’ll have more information on the sciences that will affect it. As the nation’s economy comes back to life and businesses embrace new waves of innovation to serve their customers, the American spirit of grit, growth, and prosperity will be alive and well.

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As a real estate attorney, I interact with hundreds of realtors. I wholdheartedly recommend David Worth. He is highly experienced, knowledgeable, and incredibly easy to work with. He goes above and beyond to negotiate for his clients and stays engaged throughout the transaction.
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Thrive Counseling (Guidance with Garcia)
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I worked with David as a Loan Officer, and he was fantastic to work with throughout the entire process. Was always accessible to keep communication flowing through all parties involved, always involved in the process ensuring his client's best interest and also helping along the process with any knowledge he had to make sure the process was kept smooth for everyone in the transaction. Definitely looking forward to working with him again, and wouldn't hesitate a second ti recommend him as a realtor to any of my clients.
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